Gadi Eisenkot and Avigdor Lieberman have agreed to open discussions with Shas and United Torah Judaism, the two ultra Orthodox parties, as the former military chief tries to turn his mandate into a government. The talks, reported on November 9, are the first concrete step since President Isaac Herzog formally tasked Eisenkot with forming Israel next government on November 8, and they point to the hardest question in the negotiations: military conscription.
Why it matters
The arithmetic explains why the ultra Orthodox parties matter. Eisenkot received recommendations from factions representing 67 lawmakers, against 46 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but his own four party bloc holds only 48 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. Shas and United Torah Judaism together hold 13 seats, and their support would take Eisenkot close to the 61 he needs for a confidence vote.
The price of that support is the conscription question. The ultra Orthodox parties want an arrangement that protects their community exemption from military service, while Lieberman has built his career on demanding universal service. A possible compromise on conscription is being considered in exchange for their support, according to reports, and it would require both sides to give ground on an issue neither has ever treated as negotiable.
What happens next
The other routes are no easier. The two Arab led parties, the Joint List and Raam, won 11 and eight seats and supplied the recommendations that lifted Eisenkot from 48 to 67, but several right wing opposition leaders remain unwilling to govern with them. Eisenkot has called for a national emergency government and vowed a creative and unconventional path, and he has ruled out serving under Netanyahu.
What happens next will be decided in the talks that open this week. Eisenkot has 28 days, until December 6, with a possible 14 day extension, and the Knesset is sworn in on Tuesday. Herzog can grant the extension if he believes it could help secure a deal. If he fails, Herzog has three days to decide whether to assign the task to someone else, and Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister. For now, the Lieberman talks are the first test of whether the mandate can become a majority.
